Monday, January 24, 2005

Implicit association test

Todd Zywicki should really learn a bit more about psychology before he dismisses the Implicit Association Test as "stupid academic research."
A lot of stupid academic research goes on every day. Today's Washington Post magazine features one of the dumbest I have come across in some time--Project Implicit. ... Is it really plausible that my impression of Bill and Hillary is driven more by whether I have a messy desk than my personal perception that Bill Clinton is a liar and Hillary Clinton is a megalomaniac and opportunist? ... From what I can tell, this is about as scientific and insightful as a horoscope or palm reading.
Certainly, the IAT has its problems (Mixing Memory has a post here), but these are problems of methodology, not in the general idea that unconscious processes influence our behavior, and that a large amount of information processing that goes on in the brain is not accessible to consciousness. And Todd Zywicki appears to be mocking the latter idea, not critiquing the IAT itself. (And when he addresses the IAT at all, he does so by ridiculing it, not explaining its flaws.) Incidentally, it seems to me that his distinction between unconscious bias and conscious reason is about on par with nature v. nurture in terms of unhelpful false dichotomies.

In fact, it's not as ridiculous as Todd Zywicki makes it sound that unconscious biases could influence our behavior, including our public policy preferences. He has a certain amount of privilege about his internal mental states, but not an unlimited privilege. There are a things going on inside his mind that he doesn't know about but that can be detected by psychological tests. The IAT may not be the best means to do so, but you can't claim that it is altogether "the dumbest [study] I have come across in some time."

Update, 24 Jan - The limits of common sense: Todd Zywicki has responded to my and Mixing Memory's posts, saying that he does believe in unconscious mental processes after all. That's good. But he doesn't concede the point that common sense and intuitive knowledge of how the mind works can be fundamentally incorrect. He insists that we should use our "critical thinking and common sense to determine whether research makes sense." Critical thinking, yes. But common sense, not necessarily. A great deal of science is diametrically opposed to common sense - even fundamental concepts like inertia (common sense disagrees with the idea that something will keep moving in the absence of net force, but prefers the incorrect idea that force is required to keep something moving); quantum mechanics (come on! how can something be both a wave and a particle??); special relativity (time slows down when you move really fast? huh?); general relativity (gravity is the same as acceleration?); evolution (humans descended from bacteria?); Milgram's obedience experiment in social psychology (nah, I would never give a lethal electric shock to a fellow human being). Even free-market economics violates common sense: how can following self-interest actually promote the welfare of others? In fact, reliance on common sense is profoundly anti-scientific and contradicts critical thinking.

This isn't a minor point - it forms a lot of the basis for Todd's original post ("does it really seem plausible...") and explains why he doesn't feel he needs to know anything about cognitive psychology to reject the IAT. (He notes now that he was concerned with the methodological flaws of the IAT, but strangely never mentioned them in his original post that rejected the IAT out of hand.) Point of comparison: suppose I were a naive leftist who argued that it "just doesn't seem plausible" that self-interest could promote economic welfare or that markets are a form of self-generating order, so therefore a recent economics paper that once again shows that socialism doesn't really work is "stupid academic research" and "the dumbest I have come across in some time."

Finally, his analysis of using common sense to dismiss Marxist history, Social Darwinism, and astrology is flawed. You can't dismiss those theories/ideologies out of hand: you have to have some conflicting knowledge that proves it false (non-Marxist history, a correct understanding of natural selection, and high-school level physics, respectively). You don't have to be an expert, but you do have to be somewhat informed.

Update, again: I have a new post responding to Todd's latest.

61 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Marxist theory is disproved by two controlled experiments, performed over the course of about 40 years, in Germany and Korea. These two countries, with very different cultures, were divided in half, and subjected to the two different economic systems described by Marxist theory (capitalism and communism). Eventually, the communist half of the country was demonstrated to be a failure. The Korean experiment is not quite over, but the results are clear.

The other hard science issues that you discuss (inertia, quantum mechanics, etc) arose from observations of phenomena in nature, and are mathematical explanations of those phenomena. They can be used to predict the behavior of objects in the future, within the limits of the experimental measurement.

Can the IAT predict the behavior of individual people in the future? 

Posted by ralph

1/25/2005 02:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ralph,

Thank you for bringing up the point that the track record of communism is, to put it mildly, not good. This is the kind of knowledge that allows one to make informed criticism of theories. Whereas if you just said "Marxism is an absurd theory. It doesn't make any sense!" (as Todd seemed to do in his original post about the theoretical basis for the IAT) that would be pretty unhelpful.

Of course the IAT cannot predict the behavior of individual people, any more than a telescope can predict the behavior of the planets. What matters is the theory behind the experiments. Theories generate predictions; experiments test those predictions. And theories of cognitive science do make predictions about how people will behave. As for "individual" people - people are unique and brains are complex, unlike electrons and photons. Psychology can say things like "people with attribute X will be more likely to behave a certain way than people with attribute Y" but it's absurd to suggest that psychology should be able to predict what you will eat for breakfast tomorrow in order to qualify as a scientific theory. (Similarly, medical science predicts that people who smoke are more likely to get lung cancer than those who don't smoke, but it doesn't predict whether John Doe Smoker, specifically, will get cancer.) 

Posted by Andrew

1/25/2005 06:59:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Andrew,

Thanks for your reasoned response. I will try to keep my rebuttal as civil.

Telescopes are used to predict the behavior of the planets. Based on measurements made with telescopes, and the the associated mathematical models that were developed from the observations, astronomers determined that the earth revolves around the sun, and not vice-versa. Measurements made by telescopes are used to predict that the existence of new planets (e.g., Pluto, and I believe Neptune). They are scientific instruments precisely because their measurements can be reproduced by others with similar telescopes, and the predictions of the behavior of the planets can be independently verified by other scientists.

In physical chemistry, there is a way to model the individual behavior of molecules, in terms of their energy states, and then statistical techniques can be used to develop, on a macroscopic scale, the physical laws of thermodynamics that are used to predict the physical behavior of liquids and gases.

The problem that I have with social science is that it makes these "observations" about groups of people, and then attempts to say that "people with attribute X will behave in a certain way". I know that your quote above says that "people with attribute X will be more likely to behave..." but that is not the way that this research is presented or used. The uncertainties associated with the results are ignored, and the research is used for political purposes to prove that "people with attribute X..." should be controlled/protected in some way.

From a hard scientific perspective, social science is not "science", because the conclusions can only take the form " ... will be more likely to behave a certain way...". The fundamental step of proof in science is to make a prediction that can be measured, and then have other equally skilled practitioners perform the proof experiment, and show that they can produce the predicted response, within the specified error of measurement. Social "science" does not do this - it just identifies "trends" and "tendencies". And even then, what do you do with the "tendencies"?

There are some similar situations in the hard sciences, such as radiation dose or exposure to hazardous chemicals, where the phenomena are essentially stochastic, and you can only develop a generalized dose-response curve. These situations are siezed on by "activists" for political purposes - "No level of radiation has been proven safe!" The resulting arguments generate more heat than light about the real risks to society, and they just make people feel more scared about living life.

Lung cancer (or any cancer "caused" by an external agent) is one of the situations I just described. I find it ironic that no one in the smoking debate has pointed out that lung cancer is most likely "caused" by the polonium in the smoke, lodging in the lungs, and giving a very high local radiation dose. It is well known that tobacco plants are very good at selectively removing naturally-occuring polonium from the soil, and polonium is a very nasty radio-isotope.

So, in the end, I would ask you, and anyone else who does this kind of research, what do you intend to do with the results of this sort of "experiment"? Do you intend them to be used to label "people with attribute X" in some sort of way? Do you intend to use them be able to identify these people so that they can be singled out for "help"? When hard scientists develop new energy sources, or genetic engineering capabilities, we hear from the social scientists that we have to be careful because those discoveries may be misused or have negative consequences. I think that the result of this sort of research can be nothing other than misuse, by political operatives who want to change society to fit their own ideas. We have lots of experience with how these sort of attempts have turned out (e.g., eugenics in the early 20th century)

This sort of "research" is pernicious, fashionable, nonsense and most of the public that does not understand the basis for real science will be taken in by these results, and real science has suffered considerably as a result.
 

Posted by ralph

1/26/2005 05:48:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ralph,

I think you are quite off base in both your conception of science and of how psychology works. First, a hypothesis does not have to be quantitatively precise to be scientific - it merely has to be logically rigorous. A prediction that "X will be more likely to behave a certain way if Y than if Z" is easily tested and easily falsifiable, even if the prediction is not so precise as to say "X is 47% more likely to behave a certain way if Y than if Z." For example, if you discover a gene involved in DNA repair, you might hypothesize that mutations in this gene might make it more likely for you to get cancer. So you generate some mutant mice, and your hypothesis is confirmed if the mutant mice get cancer at a higher rate than wildtype mice. This is sound science. (Of course, once you get the results, you quantify them and use statistics to see if the results are statistically significant.)

Second, you are wrong to say that psychology is not a science. Though you rail at "social science" in your comment, I assume you are still talking about the Implicit Association Test. The IAT is, fundamentally, a controlled experiment. (Your use of scare quotes around the word experiment is ridiculous. The IAT is an experiment, plain and simple.) The researchers hypothesized that people would have faster reaction times responding to pairs like "white-good" and "black-bad" than to "white-bad" and "black-good," so they designed an experiment to measure people's reaction times in response to pairs of words. Implicit bias may not be the correct interpretation of the results, but in that case you say the experiment is flawed or omitted a crucial control, not that it is unscientific.

Things like sociology and political science are more vulnerable to the criticism of being unscientific, because obviously you can't do experiments on society. (By the way, given your critique of social science as unscientific, I find it strange that you referred to the division of Germany and Korea as a "controlled experiment.") Even so, it is possible to take a scientific approach by, for example, using data to confirm or disprove a theory (e.g., the theory that "increasing economic prosperity leads to greater social stability" - just look at different societies at different stages of development).

I do agree with you about the dose-response curve and stochastic responses to hazardous chemicals. But are you saying that we should stop doing research about carcinogens because it's "unscientific," or explain to people that there is a continuous dose v. risk of cancer curve, and that "safe levels" are arbitrary decisions made by the EPA/FDA/etc.?

Finally, I think you are tilting at strawmen. Who exactly, among reputable psychologists, is asserting that their research proves that people will act a certain way rather than that people are more likely to act a certain way? (Your use of passive voice in "that is not the way that this research is presented or used..." conveniently dodges this question.) Who, indeed, is arguing that anyone who scores too highly on the IAT should be sent to re-education schools? If you're criticizing the misuse of research, rather than the research itself, you might be better off criticizing the misuse itself rather than attacking perfectly sound research as "unscientific."

Of course I do not want to use the IAT to single out people for "help" or to label them as racists, or anything. The stated purpose of the IAT is to show that unconscious biases can influence our behavior in ways we are not aware of. This is just science and the quest for greater understanding of how our minds work. We should not shut our eyes to truth just because we're afraid the information will be misused. (Incidentally, I am very unsympathetic to the idea that we shouldn't research nuclear physics or genetic engineering because the results could be misused.) 

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